Bike value 25 years from now

[Deno]

Back in 1977, I bought a Yamaha RD400 new for $1195. I rode it for about 10 years, then kids came along and it got parked in the corner of the garage. In the early 90's I sold it for around $100. It wouldn't start, the seat needed replaced, and it had a few other minor issues.

Well, now these bikes go for at least $2500 on ebay, so needless to say, I wish I hadn't sold it.

What I'm wondering though, is what bikes that are current models, will be worth 2.5 to 3 times their original price, thirty years from now? Any guesses?

[themeatmanlandry]

Originally Posted by Deno

Back in 1977, I bought a Yamaha RD400 new for $1195. I rode it for about 10 years, then kids came along and it got parked in the corner of the garage. In the early 90's I sold it for around $100. It wouldn't start, the seat needed replaced, and it had a few other minor issues.

Well, now these bikes go for at least $2500 on ebay, so needless to say, I wish I hadn't sold it.

What I'm wondering though, is what bikes that are current models, will be worth 2.5 to 3 times their original price, thirty years from now? Any guesses?

Those that stay in the box and don't dry rot?

Nooooooo idea which bikes will be worth something and which won't. I would suspect that none of them (thinking of the large manufacturers, here . . . some of the custom shop choppers might wind up worth some coin) will really be valuable in the future.

If anything, I hope it's the 2002 Bandit 600S and 2006 GSXR750!

[Clint]

I've found that the cost of storage and the hassle don't often get offset by any small profit you'd make. I tried to keep a Mustang forever, and gave up after 8 years. Granted, a motorcycle is smaller, but still... it'd have to be a unique or desirable model, not just any bike.

[GregR1]

if you invested that original $100 the right way back in 1990 or so, would you have more than $2500 today, or less? consider that...

[Rickster]

My guess is, something like a 600cc sport bike, won't have much chance of still being with us, say,,,,,,,,,,, 30 years from now,,,,,, because, most of them are being bought by new-bee riders, that don't know that much about keeping them up, and they usually get ridden quite hard, so, I can see some future 50 year old, wanting to find a bike just like the first one he owned, and be willing, and financially able to spend some big bucks to regain his lost youth.

[DrBob]

There is no telling with these things. But a mass-market bike is not going to be worth anything, nor is a bike that few people like. But a popular, lower-production bike should stay popular and thus hold its value better.

As for your specific example, you actually would have gotten hosed. A bike valued at $2500 is NOT worth twice what it was new- you can't ignore inflation and the historical value of the dollar. If you take the original $1200 in 1977 dollars and convert it to today's dollars using the per-capita GDP measure (a measure that considered wages then vs now as well as inflation to get the relative buying power of money over time) the original $1200 would be worth over $9,100 today. In other words, a bike that cost $1200 new in 1977 would cost over $9100 new today. That makes perfect sense, if you consider what wages are four times higher than in 1977, and things cost 4 times as much on average. For example the minimum wage in 1977 was $1.60; recently it was raised to $6.55, slightly over 4 times as much. So that $1200 bike being worth $2500 today means that your bike really only held 25% of its value, because the buying power of that $2500 today is only 1/4 of what the original $1200 was.

[Deno]

I guess my point is that this particular model bike is going for 2-1/2 to 3 times the amount it cost new, while I see most bikes of that era do not. However, I have noticed that 2-strokes of that era are much higher priced than their 4-stroke counterparts. The 2-stroke bikes were typically very quick, and I embarrassed more than a few 750cc bikers with my 400cc bike. The Kawasaki 2-stroke triples were extremely fast, but I doubt they could keep up with todays sportbikes. So, I'm guessing that the reason this model and others are priced the way they are today is because they have 2-stroke engines, and not because of their performance.

So back to my original question, is there any of todays bikes that will have something like this that will make them more valuable in the future than other models?

[GregR1]

Originally Posted by Deno

I guess my point is that this particular model bike is going for 2-1/2 to 3 times the amount it cost new

eeeehhh! ERROR! you're forgetting to account for inflation and the value of the dollar in 2007 versus 1977. that's 30 years, dear. i believe the traditional rate of inflation used to get a rough idea was 4% per year, so over a span of 30 years, a dollar in 1977 is the same as $1*1.04^30 (or 1 * 1.04 * 1.04 * 1.04 (and so on, 30 times over)). which is... $3.25

thus, the bike lost value, as it rightly should have. $1195 back then is $3875 now. roughly speaking.

[GregR1]

Originally Posted by Deno

So back to my original question, is there any of todays bikes that will have something like this that will make them more valuable in the future than other models?

usually the more unique, special edition, or groundbreaking stuff keep value best. it's gotta be rare, too. and it has to be useable in the future, too. useable means there's loopholes in laws that will allow it to be put to use, and it's fixable in case things break on it. so, anything with TOTALLY exotic stuff is a risk.

i suppose V-Rods will keep value. not sure about other harleys, though. mmm, this IS the first year of 96-cubic inch motors with 6-speed trannies, so maybe some of those.

[Smurf]

Who would have ever thought that the 1963 Corvette Split Window Coupe would have been worth anything. When it was made nobody wanted the split window, now look at what their worth.

At this point in time.................it's anybody's guess which one will rise to the top of the chain 25 years down the road.

[Aussie Steve]

Don't forget your going to be 25 years older by then so you will be able to spend the extra dough on a zimmer frame or a hip replacement Hahaha!

[Apertureguy]

I actually have a bike which was only in production for 2 years, and they didn't make very many of them. It runs great and I have 3k miles on it.

Now, should I continue to ride this very unique vehicle or should I store this baby and forget about her for a decade?

[DrBob]

Two-strokes are going up in value because people like them, but you can;t buy them anymore- thanks to the EPA, street legal 2-strokes are a thing of the past.
A few bikes come to mind for future 'collector' or at least 'in demand' status. The first is the Honda Valkyrie Interstate. It was an excellent, excellent bike, very popular, but Honda discontunued it after a short production run because it took sales away from the 1800VTX and Goldwing. I already see people looking hard and paying a premium for a good used Valkyrie Interstate.
Another one that comes to mind is the Rune. Unique, limited production, did not sell very well so the run was cut short. But an excellent example should be quite rare in 20 years.
ANother that comes to mind is the Harley Aniversary Super Glide in the special red-whie-blue retro paint scheme. That should be a collector's item similar to the old special edition sturgis models, as it was limited production, extremely good looking, and already hard to find. Harleys hold there value so well anyway (my 1979 FLH-80 books for 8 times it's original selling price, so even adjusted for inflation etc it is worth twice what it was new) and low-production Harleys are probably the best choice for collecting.
A lot of people have gotten hosed on the Indians made by CMC in the late 90s, paying big money for them new becuase they thought they would be valuable collectors items. But they were not particularly good bikes, and the company is gone. While somewhat rare, and not too bad looking, they lack the quality that makes a bike valuabe in the future: people just don't like them.

[TechJD]

It's hard to say as other have said
most any bike that runs good and is good looking will bring at least $2000 or so today and you cant go by ebays inflated prices either
most of what I see on ebay doesnt really sell

follow some you will find they look good and prices are high but the sales arent, too many using other names to up the bids or having a buddy force it up, or ( the one I like (not) ) This Item has been removed by the seller becuase there was a mistake in the auction listing)

when bidding is over and no feed back ever left good or bad to me says no sale just someone running up the bids

and if you watch the same item will show up later under a different sellers name

[Xerses]

Originally Posted by RowdyRed94

Granted, a motorcycle is smaller, but still... it'd have to be a unique or desirable model, not just any bike.

Like an M50

[eb77k]

I've got a nice Suzuki 380 (three cylinder 2-stroke) that was an orphan. I got it for free and will have it running in a few days. I'm not sure what will be worth anything in the future as far as modern bikes go, but now is the golden era for me. All the stuff I couldn't afford when I was younger is available right now dirt cheap!

Ironhead sportsters, Jap two-strokes, unit construction Triumphs..... I could go on and on. Not being a fan of bikes that look like insects, or having to wear outfits that make you look like one of your parents was an insect I'm kicked to the curb by most modern bikes. I've stated many times I'd rather have 10 bikes worth $1000 each that are a little time capsule for me than a new "adventure tourer" for $10,000. I could make money on any of my old bikes just because they are available so affordably in a condition that isn't hard for me to get back to good.

You know there will be folks in the future who will pay top dollar for what ever bike tripped their trigger back in the day. Even if it looks like a** to me.