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Old 09-15-2006, 12:29 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Well, I'm about to pull the trigger after having not ridden in about 25 years. Either a C50 or S50. I know they are very different bikes, but I need to see which one fits my 5'5" frame best. But y'alls constant talk about the increase in crashes, injuries, and fatalities has put me off. Believe me, I am sensitive to safety issues...hell my job is an Offshore Safety Advisor!! I understand the importance of training, protective gear, awareness, impairment, etc, better than most. So I looked at the statistics and applied them to me:
Helmets reduced the likleyhood of fatality by 29% (I will wear a full face helmet all the time.)
Speeding was involved in 41% of fatal crashes. (I even drive my cage at the speed limit.)
Intoxication was a major cause of crashes 31% of the time. ( I do not drink and drive)
29%+41%+31%=101%
It appears that if I wear my helmet, do not speed nor drink; I will be safer riding than not riding. So when I get home this time I am getting the C50. Or the S50.

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Old 09-15-2006, 07:22 AM   #2 (permalink)
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You're right about two things, 'doc: Riding is hazardous and you can dramatically reduce that risk. The buzzword statistic is that riding is 15-20 times more dangerous than driving. I believe that if you do the things you mentioned (and training is critical for riders in your situation), your risk drops to 2 or 3 times that of driving. That is acceptable, no?

We all face our demons occasionally when it comes to risk. Keep your head in the game and it's all within realistic expectations.
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Old 09-15-2006, 08:16 AM   #3 (permalink)
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As a project manager, I'm dealing with "risks" all day long. Granted, they usually aren't life-threatening (unless you factor in stress), but the process is the same.

When dealing with risk, the most important thing is to recognize it. The worst thing that can happen is that you are blind-sided by something. If you are aware of the risks, you can usually deal with them.

There are different methods of dealing with risk - here's an example I used in a project management class I was teaching a couple of years ago:

"It is a hot summer day, and you are out in the desert. You come up to an oasis with a large lake. You want to go swimming to cool down. But there is a shark swimming in the lake. What do you do?"

There are different ways to deal with this risk, each has a cost (from a project perspective, the risks are to your costs, timeline, quality and deliverable):

- Don't swim (Risk avoidance) - You haven't achieved your goal.
- Just go swimming, keepnig an eye on the shark (risk acceptance) - goal achieved ... maybe.
- Slip quietly into the water and jump quickly back out (risk minimization) - You've delivered, but no one is really satsified.
- Build a shark cage and go swimming inside the cage (risk limitation) - You've delivered, but you spent a lot more time and money than planned
- Throw someone else into the water first (risk delegation) - may not be the most popular solution, especially among your team.

Other solutions include capturing the shark and moving it to another lake, or killing the shark (additional benefits - shark steak and sharkfin soup).

What I'm trying to say is that life is full of risks - the trick is to face them with your eyes open. If you know the risks, you can act to avoid them or better react if they occur. Not recognizing the risk can kill you.
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Old 09-15-2006, 08:31 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Doc, I love your stats!
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Old 09-15-2006, 08:40 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Don’t be put off, just be a realist...

At least among those few riders with whom I correspond (I’m generally not a flocking kinda rider, so I don’t get into group situations except by blunder...), a minor get-off or other moment of modest excitement ever five to ten years seems to be standard fare for those of us who have been riding awhile – seems to go with the territory.

I heartily encourage anyone who seems seriously interested in motorcycling to take the MSF course, but I rarely encourage anyone to take up the sport... On more than one occasion I’ve seen riders (and pillions, for that matter), who bought the glossy-brochure notion of riding down some tranquil sunlit boulevard at 35mph, go almost apoplectic when confronted with the stark realities of 70-75mph metro traffic... The fact is, motorcycling carries its own set of hazards and benefits, and the tranquility the rider may have been seeking (whether a newbie or ol’goat) is often hard to find – high mental load situations are far more common, and this is where I think the screw-ups happen... especially for riders who should have long master the very few skills actually required to get a two-wheeled machine from point A to point B.

I’ve had probably half a dozen get-offs in my day, and while I’ve so far never broken anything, I’ve been black and blue more than once, and hobbled for a few days as a result of an intimate moment with the asphalt... But, as much as I’d like to blame each get-off on someone else, the fact is in 100% of the cases, although I may have been legally in the right, I contributed to the situation – and got myself into a predicament where there was no readily available escape route (often, upon reflection, I realize there really was a way out, but in the split-second when the decision needed to be made, my mind was focused on something else -- I had been in the middle of daydreaming or other mind-numbing activity and didn’t have the information I needed to make the right call).

Riding around cones and practicing obstruction avoidance maneuvers are great for getting a tad better acquainted with the bike/bike-controls, but does little to help a rider who finds themselves in a high-mental-load situation... I’m not sure what the solution is, except perhaps knowing one’s predilections and limitation, or even outright avoidance of some situations... especially when one is tired, lost in thought or just not wanting to wrestle with a road full of cages...

The fact is, I usually am further from these exciting moments when I’m riding a bit harder and concentrating on trying to get a little more out of the ol’machine than when I’m just lollygagging along minding my own business – with my mind in the middle of protracted brain-cramp. My last two get-offs I was in the right legally, but not paying as much attention to traffic and before I knew it I had no readily available escape route when a driver made an unexpected move... old bones still bounce just as high as they once did, but the grunts are more heartfelt...

Alertness, watchfulness, attentiveness, vigilance... with it, there should be no special fear of riding... but lacking it, all the skill, practice and experience in the world won’t save me...
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